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Two Years of Conflict in Sudan: How the SAF Is Seizing the Advantage

by Ethan Riley
July 2, 2025
in Algeria
Two years of war in Sudan: How the SAF is gaining the upper hand – ACLED (Armed Conflict Location and Event Data)
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Introduction: Understanding the Evolving Conflict in Sudan

As Sudan’s conflict extends into its third year, the nature of warfare within the country has undergone significant transformation, drawing heightened attention from both regional neighbors and global stakeholders. Data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) reveals that the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have increasingly asserted dominance over competing factions. What began as political unrest intertwined with deep-rooted ethnic divisions has escalated into a multifaceted war, triggering severe humanitarian emergencies and destabilizing an already fragile region. With SAF’s growing territorial control and tactical adaptability across contested zones, this article explores how their evolving military strategies are reshaping Sudan’s future landscape and influencing international peace efforts.

Table of Contents

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  • Strategic Evolution of the Sudanese Armed Forces: Key Military Advances
  • Humanitarian Consequences: The Toll on Civilians Amidst Ongoing Violence
  • Pathways Toward Peace: Integrating Diplomacy with Humanitarian Initiatives for Stability
  • Looking Ahead: Prospects for Resolution Amid Persistent Challenges

Strategic Evolution of the Sudanese Armed Forces: Key Military Advances

The trajectory of Sudan’s conflict highlights a series of calculated moves by the SAF to strengthen their hold despite numerous operational hurdles. Recently, SAF operations have concentrated on securing vital urban centers, which has enhanced their logistical networks and streamlined supply chains—critical factors boosting combat efficiency. Intelligence reports suggest that SAF forces have exploited vulnerabilities within rival paramilitary groups such as the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), executing precision offensives that not only reclaimed territory but also eroded RSF morale.

Several pivotal elements underpinning SAF’s ascendancy include:

  • Advanced intelligence gathering enabling precise tracking of RSF troop movements.
  • Strategic alliances forged with various tribal communities to weaken RSF support bases.
  • Upgraded training programs coupled with modernized equipment enhancing battlefield readiness.
Strategic ElementOperational Outcome
Enhanced Intelligence CapabilitiesImproved targeting accuracy in combat missions
Tribal Coalition BuildingExpanded ground-level support networks
Modern Military EquipmentElevated overall operational effectiveness

Humanitarian Consequences: The Toll on Civilians Amidst Ongoing Violence

The protracted fighting in Sudan has precipitated one of Africa’s most severe humanitarian disasters in recent years. Over 2 million individuals have been displaced internally or forced to seek asylum across borders due to escalating violence disrupting daily life. Agricultural activities—vital for food security—have been severely hampered by ongoing hostilities, resulting in widespread malnutrition affecting vulnerable populations.

Healthcare infrastructure is collapsing under sustained attacks; many hospitals are either non-functional or operating at minimal capacity, leaving millions without access to essential medical services for treatable illnesses.

International aid agencies face immense obstacles delivering relief amid persistent insecurity exacerbated by shifting frontlines influenced by SAF advances:

Crisis AreaStatus & Needs               
            
        
       
       
       

          

           
           
           
           
    

Access to Safe Drinking Water

Approximately 40% lack consistent access

Emergency Medical Resources

Only about 30% reach affected zones

Education Services Disruption

Nearly three-quarters of schools closed or severely limited

Pathways Toward Peace: Integrating Diplomacy with Humanitarian Initiatives for Stability

Traditional diplomatic efforts aimed at resolving Sudan’s crisis have encountered increasing obstacles amid entrenched hostilities. To pave a sustainable path toward regional stability requires a comprehensive strategy involving multiple stakeholders.

Engagement with influential regional powers is critical—they can act as mediators leveraging political influence to de-escalate tensions while supporting peace negotiations.

Simultaneously, aligning humanitarian assistance closely with diplomatic frameworks ensures aid delivery addresses urgent needs without exacerbating conflict dynamics.

Empowering local actors remains essential; community leaders and grassroots organizations play pivotal roles in fostering reconciliation and resilience within affected populations.

Transparency mechanisms overseeing aid distribution can build trust among communities wary of misappropriation or bias:

  • Cultivating robust civil society institutions capable of advocating for peace.
  • Nurturing local leadership equipped for effective conflict resolution initiatives.
  • Pursuing enhanced cross-border collaboration between neighboring countries sharing security concerns.

By prioritizing these integrated approaches, international partners can contribute meaningfully toward stabilizing Sudan while addressing both immediate humanitarian crises and long-term governance challenges.

Looking Ahead: Prospects for Resolution Amid Persistent Challenges

As fighting continues into its third year, recent ACLED data underscores an evolving power balance favoring SAF forces tactically controlling key regions across Sudan.
However, despite these military gains signaling potential shifts in authority structures,
the profound human suffering caused by prolonged violence remains an urgent concern demanding sustained global attention.
Efforts must focus not only on ceasefire negotiations but also on rebuilding shattered social fabrics through inclusive dialogue involving all stakeholders.
Ultimately,
the quest for lasting peace hinges upon coordinated international engagement committed to supporting both security stabilization and comprehensive recovery initiatives benefiting all segments of society.
Sudan’s road ahead is fraught yet holds possibilities if diplomacy aligns effectively with humanitarian priorities.

Tags: ACLEDArmed ConflictCivil Warconflict dynamicsconflict resolutionescalationgeopolitical issuesHumanitarian CrisisInternational RelationsKhartoumMilitary Conflictmilitary strategyNorth Africapeace effortspolitical analysisregional stabilitySAFsecurity studiesSudanSudan Armed ForcesSudan Civil WarSudan conflictSudan WarViolenceWar
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